What's next after Omicron? Scientists draw four future scenarios

British scientists present four models of how the corona pandemic could develop after Omicron. There are waves of illness in each of the scenarios - from "quite okay" to "really severe".

Scientists from the British "Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies" (SAGE) have dealt with the question of how the corona pandemic will develop in the future . As a result of the study, the research group is now presenting four future scenarios that it considers realistic in relation to Great Britain.

Four future scenarios: What awaits us after Omikron?

The course of the pandemic presented by the scientists gives an idea that there can be no talk of a real end to the crisis in the coming months. Because corona outbreaks and waves of infection occur continuously from the best-case to the worst-case scenario.

Scenario 1: The best case

In this scenario, the researchers predict a weak corona wave with less severe disease progression for the autumn and winter of 2022/2023.

One or more new virus variants develop, but they are neither more contagious nor deadly than Delta or Omicron. Corona outbreaks only occur locally or seasonally due to the declining immunity in the population and the new variants. However, vaccinations and corona drugs remain effective.

Scenario 2: The optimistic course

The waves of infection that occur in autumn/winter differ in their intensity: sometimes they are more like a severe delta wave, sometimes a light omicron wave. The researchers refer to these as "good years and bad years".

Immunity in the population is declining and new virus variants are emerging. The elderly, people with previous illnesses and unvaccinated or recovered people are particularly affected by death and severe courses.

Vaccines are being further developed and are offered to vulnerable groups in good years and to everyone in bad years. Voluntary protective measures such as wearing a mask, distancing, fewer contacts are key and will be implemented.

Scenario 3: The pessimistic trend

Violent waves of infection also occur in spring and summer . Older people, people from risk groups and unvaccinated people become seriously ill and die.

New virus variants keep appearing unexpectedly and have a significant impact on the course of infection. Compared to omicron, these mutations are more contagious and more often trigger serious illnesses.

On the one hand, vaccines are constantly being developed and offer solid protection to a large number of people. On the other hand, the more frequent waves of infection are affecting certain population groups - such as children and their everyday school life. In addition, the effectiveness of the corona drugs decreases.

Voluntary protective measures have to be supplemented again and again by state measures .